Bitcoin / USD Hourly Wave Count – August 11th, 2014

Bitcoin price is still in a Minor 2 correction, as outlined in the hourly chart below. The price movement since the recent high at 658 has not been extremely impulsive to the downside, as I would expect for a (c) of Minor 2 move down as was proposed in the latest wave count on July 14th. The daily squeeze that was explained in my post produced a decent move of about $60 to the downside, but the waves have been overlapping and choppy. Therefore, I have modified the count to show the price action since the wave (a) low of 538 as a descending triangle for wave (b). All minuette degree waves within the triangle are counted as three wave moves. The wave (c) move down will then follow.

Targets for the (c) of 2 wave down range between the 62% retrace of Minor 1 at 470.31 and the 78% retrace of Minor 1 at 415.35. The (c) = (a) target is 429. These are estimated measurements based on fibonacci retracements that provide a rough guideline. All in all, the wave (c) move down is satisfied as soon as 538.38 is breached to the downside, but the first target of 470 should at least get hit for the minutte waves of (c) to properly form.

At this moment, technical indicators on the Bitcoin 2 hour chart are extremely oversold, so I would expect a small bounce or extended sideways movement before the wave d-(b) drop down to around 555. A three wave move up for wave e-(b) of the descending triangle should then form, followed by a violent move down for wave (c)-2 once the flat bottom trendline of the triangle is broken. Bitcoin price cannot move above the c-(b) wave of the triangle at 607.20 by much if this count is valid.

Good trading. Set stop losses to the downside if you are long.

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August 11, 2014 – Bitcoin Hourly Chart